The Region: Yogi Berra was right

One thing I've learned from 30 years doing contemporary history about the Middle East is that Yogi Berra was right. You might remember the great New York Yankees' catcher, who was almost equally famous for mangling the English language. "It's tough to make predictions," he once said, "especially about the future."

But what can be done with a fair degree of certainty is to rule out scenarios that are not going to happen. Sometimes, though, these unlikely outcomes loom so large as to blot out much more likely, or dangerous, developments and lead to disastrous policies.

Barry Rubin

Hamas is not going to moderate, stop terrorism against Israel, or make a compromise peace.

The Palestinians will not reach an internal political solution, turn toward economic development, or moderate their positions.

Syria's government is not going to help any compromise solution in Iraq, make peace with Israel, or stop trying to take over Lebanon.

The current regime in Iran will not stop trying to get nuclear weapons, subverting the region, or sponsoring terrorism.

The incumbent Arab regimes - with a few exceptions among the smaller Gulf states - will not implement any substantive economic or political reforms.

Hizbullah will not moderate its goals. Even if it adopts "political methods," these are merely at the service of its extremist goals. Anyway, at the same time Hizbullah - like other radical groups - sees no reason why it shouldn't use violence at the same time as it holds demonstrations or runs in elections.

All the same points apply to the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in Turkey.

The communities in Iraq will not reach any power-sharing compromise until one side in the civil war has decisively defeated the other. Democracy, in the meaningful sense of the word, is not coming to the Arabic-speaking world very soon.

Most Western Middle East "experts" will continue failing to understand the Middle East.

Charles Krauthammer, are you paying attention?