Hillary's Not Out
In answer to Robert's question:
First, let me say that I no longer believe Hillary is inevitable (that term is getting pretty trite, eh?), but I do still think she will be the nominee.
The thing to keep in mind is that the delegate count going in to the convention is meaningless. Of course, if Obama had an overwhelming lead, the convention would be hard pressed to override the "will of the people," but the Democrats have shown, time and time again that they will do just that. But Obama doesn't have that commanding lead. And things are getting worse for him.
Obama is disintegrating rapidly. He has utterly botched the handling of his noisy and noisesome preacher, he threw his own grandmother under the bus with his "typical white person" comment, he refuses to shut his wife up. The latter is getting more and more problematic for him. She certainly has a right to say whatever she wants to, but voters also have a right to go elsewhere when her haughty, left-wing opinions piss them off. And even worse, he is not faring well in this dust-up with McCain over her. It is showing the Democratic leadership that he may not be able to take McCain one on one.
There are hurricane-force winds blowing against the GOP right now. I predict a debacle for them that will make the Democrats' route in 1994 look like a hand slap. Amazingly enough, Obama appears to be the only Democrat who could possibly lose to McCain. He is radically left-wing, Peggy Noonan's case of the vapors notwithstanding. His wife, who appears to have at least as much influence as Hillary did in 1992, is even more radically left-wing. He is associated with radical Black separatism. On top of all of that, he doesn't even have any strong base among the anti-war crowd. McCain recently stole his thunder on that issue as well.
On the other hand, the Clintons have shown that they can effectively win elections and implement an agenda, even with a whole bus-load of skeletons hanging around their necks. Sure nobody likes Hillary, but nobody likes McCain either. The small fraction of people who are actually going to vote in this election don't seem to have personal affection for the candidates as one of their voting booth issues.
So, on balance, considering that the Democratic nomination will occur in the smoky back room, and considering that the Clintons have a proven track record of being able to march over the GOP, even when the Republicans were much stronger than they are now, and given that Obama is unraveling at an exponential rate, I just don't see how anyone could arrive at any other outcome.
...I'd like see if he [Steve] would explain how he sees things unfolding in the race.
First, let me say that I no longer believe Hillary is inevitable (that term is getting pretty trite, eh?), but I do still think she will be the nominee.
The thing to keep in mind is that the delegate count going in to the convention is meaningless. Of course, if Obama had an overwhelming lead, the convention would be hard pressed to override the "will of the people," but the Democrats have shown, time and time again that they will do just that. But Obama doesn't have that commanding lead. And things are getting worse for him.
Obama is disintegrating rapidly. He has utterly botched the handling of his noisy and noisesome preacher, he threw his own grandmother under the bus with his "typical white person" comment, he refuses to shut his wife up. The latter is getting more and more problematic for him. She certainly has a right to say whatever she wants to, but voters also have a right to go elsewhere when her haughty, left-wing opinions piss them off. And even worse, he is not faring well in this dust-up with McCain over her. It is showing the Democratic leadership that he may not be able to take McCain one on one.
There are hurricane-force winds blowing against the GOP right now. I predict a debacle for them that will make the Democrats' route in 1994 look like a hand slap. Amazingly enough, Obama appears to be the only Democrat who could possibly lose to McCain. He is radically left-wing, Peggy Noonan's case of the vapors notwithstanding. His wife, who appears to have at least as much influence as Hillary did in 1992, is even more radically left-wing. He is associated with radical Black separatism. On top of all of that, he doesn't even have any strong base among the anti-war crowd. McCain recently stole his thunder on that issue as well.
On the other hand, the Clintons have shown that they can effectively win elections and implement an agenda, even with a whole bus-load of skeletons hanging around their necks. Sure nobody likes Hillary, but nobody likes McCain either. The small fraction of people who are actually going to vote in this election don't seem to have personal affection for the candidates as one of their voting booth issues.
So, on balance, considering that the Democratic nomination will occur in the smoky back room, and considering that the Clintons have a proven track record of being able to march over the GOP, even when the Republicans were much stronger than they are now, and given that Obama is unraveling at an exponential rate, I just don't see how anyone could arrive at any other outcome.
posted by Anonymous | 12:07 PM
5 Comments:
This all sounds like wishful thinking and opposite from reality, Steve.
Fair enough on the wishful thinking part, Strother, but if you think this is all opposite of reality, I'd be curious to know in which reality you've been residing lately.
... just observing the majority, Steve.
"But Obama doesn't have that commanding lead. And things are getting worse for him."
How? Compared to his opponent, not as much. It's the last leg of the primary marathon, and both Obama and Clinton are beat up, slowing down, and tiring out. He's had his near-catastrophic moment (with the Reverend), and made it through.
"Obama is disintegrating rapidly. He has utterly botched the handling of his noisy and noisesome preacher, he threw his own grandmother under the bus with his "typical white person" comment, he refuses to shut his wife up."
The worst of the preacher issue is over; the 'typical white person' comment is the buzz of blogs like Huffington and News Busters, et al — not MSM; not everyone thinks that husbands should shut their wives up.
"Sure nobody likes Hillary, but nobody likes McCain either."
Yes, and the only candidate that anyone has any real passion about is Obama. That makes him the most likely winner at this point. Plus, we're coming off the worst president in a long time. The further you are from Dubya in 2008, the better; Obama's definitely that guy.
Wow! Talk about wishful thinking!
... just observing the majority, Steve.
As if that has anything to do with anything.
He's had his near-catastrophic moment (with the Reverend), and made it through.
Well, for one thing, the preacher thing wasn't a "moment," it's ongoing. Every time the guy opens his mouth, Obama gets beat up for it. Much the same is true with his wife. Every time she utters one of her ivy league leftist pronouncements, Obama loses votes. Sorry, but the reality outside the Obama adoration circles is that he is hemorrhaging badly. And if you think the GOP strategists will let all of this die after the primary, you are really off in a fantasy land.
Yes, and the only candidate that anyone has any real passion about is Obama.
Anecdote isn't evidence, Strother. Yes, Obama has his fans, but so does Hillary and so does McCain, hell, even George Bush still has a sizeable chunk of fans. But the general public doesn't love Obama any more than they do Hillary or McCain. And you still seem to believe that the outcome of the convention will have anything to do with the popular vote. The Democrat power brokers are not going to give away the chance to own American politics for the next 8 years to an untested neophyte who isn't doing so well now that the fecal rain has started to fall.
Obama is a deeply flawed candidate in a party that is in more disarray on the presidential level than the Republican Party is. Obama has lost 5 of the last 7 primaries, and this is after the media has already written Hillary's obituary. With the Democrat Party being in disarray on the presidential level, on Hillary's side, they consider the people not voting for her to be sexist; on Obama's side, they consider the people not voting for him to be racist. Either way, it's going to be ugly for the rest of campaign year for either Obama or Hillary. With Obama's people saying McCain is running for Bush's third term, one could say Obama is running for Jimmy Carter's second term.
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